In our recent Sunday report, we anticipated a minor correction for Bitcoin ($BTC) when it was trading at $44,000, attributing it to the exceptionally high funding rate. As predicted, a day later on Monday, Bitcoin experienced a downturn, plummeting from $44,000 to around $40,200. Remarkably, the descent precisely targeted a crucial level—the support of the 20-day Moving Average (MA20). This occurrence mirrored the pattern of the past 45 days and aligned seamlessly with our analysis outlined in the Sunday report. Notably, Bitcoin touched MA20 three times within the week, with each interaction resulting in a bounce on the chart.
Looking ahead, our focus is on several key levels, starting with the reliable MA20, which has proven to be a steadfast companion for over 45 days. However, caution is advised. Overreliance on this indicator may lead to it losing its supportive role. As long as MA20 remains intact, we anticipate a final target of $48,000 for this upward rally. Conversely, should we breach MA20, our attention shifts to the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) at $38,100. It’s crucial to emphasize that this scenario unfolds only in the event of MA20 being compromised. Simultaneously, there’s a noteworthy liquidity pool around $43,600, acting as a magnetic force as long as MA20 remains a stronghold. The consistent rebound observed after MA20 retests underscores the strength of the bullish market when Bitcoin maintains its position above MA20.
Executing our strategy, we’ve been fully invested since the $16,000 to $18,000 range, capitalizing on each subsequent price surge. In light of the market entering an extreme greed phase, characterized by the explosive growth of meme hype tokens, many have opted to secure profits from their trading portfolio rather than succumbing to the temptation of larger positions during this speculative frenzy. This strategic move is prompted by the warning signs associated with mass adoption of meme-based assets. My perspective is anchored in the long term, with a bullish outlook extending into mid-2024, marking the commencement of a significant bull run—the golden run. It’s essential to note that major bull markets in crypto, historically follow halving events. While we remain steadfast in holding long-term investment positions, we must strategically take profits from atleast half of trading portfolio positions, with each position size encompassing all currently held and longed coins.
This week, market volatility is anticipated with the release of the Final GDP on Thursday, adding a layer of uncertainty. However, the subsequent two weeks are expected to be relatively calm. As we navigate the evolving landscape, the adherence to key levels and strategic decision-making will be paramount for traders and investors alike.
